For those who aren't aware, your last premier ball will ALWAYS fail on the first roll. Golden Razz and Excellent throws do not help at all. I haven't tested with non-legendary raids, so maybe someone else can confirm whether this is the case for all raids.
What's causing this bug?
If we take some people's claim at their face saying they have caught a legendary on the last ball, and we factor the magikarp videos showing the incredibly low % of it being RNG for breaking out of last balls with magikarp, it follows that there is a bug for some/many people, not all, but for those affected by it, it makes it next to impossible to catch a legendary on the last ball. From that, if it affects some people and not all, the next step is identifying situations/phones/type of accounts affected by this bug. Does this bug only happen on certain:
- --operating software (different #.# OS)
- --phone type (apple v. android)
- --phone model
- --accounts (google v. PTC)
--other factors influencing the throw (critical catch seems to bypass the bug, but what about badge captures?)
Rather than the starting point being "I'm right, therefore you are wrong", let's start with, "What if we're both right, what factors could explain this that are present for you and not for me? What's different about our situations?"
Proofs that this annoying glitch exist
Here's several videos that displays this bug in action:
In addition, I've heard reports from some very reputable players I regularly raid with. I'm talking about the type of players who were level 40 in 2016. The types who raid every single day after work and from 8am-9pm on weekends. Tales of catching 100% iv ttars on last balls which would be hard to mistake. That's why I say there must be something else at play.
For example, I recently learned that if the game crashes during the encounter, you sometimes come back and find you have all your premier balls still even though you'd already used some. However, the boss flees before you run out because the server remembers how many you had. I.E. if you'd used 2 before it crashed, the boss flees when you have 2 left. It's possible that there's some kind of reverse effect where you have more balls than is displayed so the catches on the "last ball" were really the second last. Or some other weird bug or mechanic that makes it possible on the "last ball" in rare circumstances.
I just wish Niantic would make an official statement already.
This end ups being a huge part of the issue for those who are struggling to get their legendaries, since one extra ball increases your odds of catching the pokemon massively.
We have contacted Niantic about this and we hope they address this matter as soon as possible.