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Tier 4 Raid Bosses - Catch Probability by Throw Type in Pokemon GO Detailed

Now that the catch rate modifiers for Premier balls and Golden Razz Berries have been confirmed, here’s a graphic to show just how effective they are in comparison to Razz Berries and other throw types.
Color hex value was #FF6C00 which corresponds to a catch rate of approximately 21.18%. (One single color combination spans about 0.2% catch rate.)
Catch rate of a level 20 Muk (BCR = 20%) w/ gold poison medal:
CR = 1 - (1 - 0.2 / (2 * 0.59740001))1.3 = 21.19%
Furthermore, I empirically verified Golden Razz Berry's multiplier to be 2.5x.
Color hex value was #FFE500 which corresponds to a catch rate of approximately 44.90%.
CR = 1 - (1 - 0.2 / (2 * 0.59740001))1.3 * 2.5 = 44.86%
This graphic assumes a few things, check the description below.

The graphic is read from left to right, with each vertical line corresponding to a particular combination of throw and berry. Everything was calculated using the Premier Ball capture model.

As you can see, throwing a Curved Great Throw with a Berry almost quadruples your chances to catch the Pokemon. If you don’t want to use Golden Razz Berries, make sure that you always throw Curve + Great with Normal Razz.

What we know so far about Raid Boss captures?

We know quite a lot actually! The base capture rates for Raid Bosses are the same as when you encounter them in the wild: 12.5%, 10% or 5% for Rare Raid Bosses. In addition, it was recently empirically proven that Premier Balls have same capture rate as normal Poke Balls.

This leaves us with only a few elements to worry about while capturing the boss:
  • The quality of the throw
  • Berry usage
  • Type Medal level
This graphic was created using the following assumptions:
  • Catch formula assumes player has the gold medal(s) for each Pokemon type, and that the maximum multiplier for each nice, great and excellent throw is made.
  • Since the base capture rate for Snorlax, Lapras and Rhydon has been decreased to 5%, all tier 4 raid bosses now have the same chance of being caught (5%), and all follow the same catch rate formula in the graphic.